28Oct2024 United Spirits Polymers Engagement Diary

Engagement Diary United Spirits 28-Oct-2024
  • Discussed the medium term outlook of Polymer Resins & Films with Diageo team.
  • Covered the upstream raw material Crude oil price trends, Interest rate cuts from major central banks of Fed & ECB and prospects of further rate cuts in the upcoming meetings of 2024 leading to optimism across the US & Euro Area markets, the medium-term key price drivers and price outlook forecast in detail covering impact of geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel on crude oil, Libya crude production coming back online and highlights of IEA & OPEC Oct’24 monthly reports.
  • Focused on weakness in refining margins across all the major regions of the US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam and Singapore in Sep’24 and upcoming winter distillates demand season improving heating oil prices & overall refining margins during the period of November to January.
  • Focused on China Crude Oil imports and the declining trend in the China’s crude oil imports.
  • Highlighted that crude oil market is expected to remain at a deficit of 0.17 MBpd in OND’24. Overall, for 2024, market is expected to remain at a deficit of around 0.11 MBpd. Meanwhile, market is expected to result in a higher surplus situation of 0.65 MBpd in JFM’25 with anticipated higher fall in demand (from both OECD & Non-OECD nations) relative to supply.
  • On the whole conveyed that, Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to recover towards 83 USD/bbl by end Nov’24 ahead of retreating lower towards 71 USD/bbl by end Mar’25.
  • Initially, pessimism being developed in the markets over China’s demand in H2’24, anticipated Libya crude oil supplies coming back online and the US refineries maintenance season are likely to drive the initial weakness in crude prices.
  • Later, markets factoring in OPEC+ nations delaying easing of additional voluntary production cuts and likely optimism expected to develop in the markets with current interest rate cuts cycle being going on at the major central banks of Fed and ECB are expected to support recovery in crude prices.
  • Covered the price trends of HDPE, LLDPE, PP and PET resins along with latest market developments, with a focus on weakness in upstream raw material prices of Crude oil & Naphtha, Asian prices (due to subdued demand coming from China’s front) and additional PP resin supplies coming at the domestic front (with Nayara plant at Vadinar coming online in Jul’24 with an annual production capacity of 0.5 million tons) weighing on domestic PE & PP resins prices.
  • Also discussed the price driving factors such as value chain margins for all the resins, import price parity for PET, PP and PE products leading to decline in imports especially for PE products. Highlighted, the prospects of higher availability of polymer resin supplies in domestic & international markets are weighing on PE, PP and PET resin prices in domestic market overshadowing the impact of near-term domestic festive demand.
  • Covered the import trends of PE, PP and PET till Aug’24 and covered the major import sources for India for all these polymers.
  • Highlighted the increase of Anti-dumping duty (ADD) to three-fold on PET resin (having an intrinsic viscosity of 0.72 deciliters per gram or higher) imports coming from Wankai New Materials Co. Ltd of China. Meanwhile, for all other companies of China and for companies from rest other nations, there is no change in any ADD.
  • Covered the impact of initiation of Anti-dumping duty study by government of India on MEG from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. 
  • Elaborated the price structure change in PET bottle prices and the reason for the structural change.
  • Outlook:
  • HDPE Injection (L60075) and PP Injection (H110MA) grades prices: Indicated that prices are expected to correct during the second fortnight of Oct’24 and witnessing a deeper correction in the months of Nov’24, Dec’24 & Jan’25.
  • Suggested that:
  • HDPE Injection (L60075) prices are expected to average around 96.0 INR/Kg & 95.0 INR/Kg in OND’24 & JFM’25 respectively compared to 98.7 INR/Kg in JAS’24.
  • PP Injection (H110MA) prices are expected to average around 97.5 INR/Kg & 95.5 INR/Kg in OND’24 & JFM’25 respectively compared to 101.6 INR/Kg in JAS’24.
  • PET Bottle grade (G5801): Indicated that prices are expected to correct further during the second fortnight of Oct’24 and correcting deeper later in the months of Nov’24, Dec’24 & Jan’25. Prices are expected to average around 96.0 INR/Kg & 97.0 INR/Kg in OND’24 & JFM’25 respectively compared to 112.9 INR/Kg in JAS’24.